The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei has reaffirmed political statehood ahead of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s unexpected death. The Presidential responsibilities will be handled by Vice President, Mohammad Mokhber until elections are announced.
Iranian President, Ebrahim Raisi – a deeply conservative leader, infamous for numerous “act of crimes” was declared dead a day after a chopper carrying President Raisi and foreign minister, Hossain Amirabdollahian, crashed in poor weather in mountains near the Azerbaijan border, as briefed by officials and state media of Iran on Monday. “The supporter of the world’s oppressed, the servant of the people of Iran, Ayatollah Dr. Seyed Ebrahim Raisi, the president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, was martyred on the way to serving the people.”
His death sent shockwaves around the globe, with world leaders conveying condolences, and Raisi’s faithful supporters mourning their leader’s untimely passing. The charred wreckage of the helicopter which crashed on Sunday carrying Raisi, Foreign minister, and six other passengers and crew was found early on Monday after an overnight search operation in blizzard conditions.
Ebrahim Raisi whose hardline policies, nuclear programs, amiability with Russian government, moral policing, and anti-Israel standpoint, invited Western sanctions that tormented its economy. But sudden death of Iranian President in a helicopter crash plunges Tehran into fresh uncertainty at a time when it already faces popular discontent, and war. All eyes are now on what comes next for the Middle Eastern power, which is home to nearly 90 million people.
Future of Iranian Leadership
The 85 year old, Supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei addressed a gathering of grieving residents to set in line the pre-established succession process that empowers current Vice President Mohammad Mokhber to assume the interim presidency and hold an election within next 50 days. Election in Iran are predetermined, as the powerful, and ultra-conservative Guardian Council ultimately decides who is allowed on the ballot in the first place.
The next 50-days in Iran are expected to be politically exhausting, since it is going to set on floor Iran’s future leadership plans, and how the country will revamp itself from the clutches of economic decline. Some analysts expect fair degree of continuity, while also noting that this could present an opening for Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard’s Corp (IRGC) to gain even more control over the country’s political decision.
Now deceased, Ebrahim Raisi was elected President of Iran in 2021 amid lowest voter turnout even for an Iranian national election, Raisi was a hardline right-winger seen as a potential successor to the Islamic Republican’s 85-year-old Supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. A harsh critic of the West, the 63-year-old Raisi never failed to seize a chance to dismiss Western influence and never accepted Israel’s sovereign statehood. His government backed a number of regional armed proxy groups including Gaza’s Hamas, Lebanese Shia militia Hezbollah, and Yemen’s Houthis.
Over the next 50-days of the interim presidency, the IRGC’s role in Iran’s upper administration is going to remain intact and potentially intensify. That interim presidency is going to potentially pave the way for more IRGC’s control over policies, reflected concerned authorities. The fact remains that 68-year-old vice president of Iran, Mohammad Mokhber has assumed interim presidency of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Ties with U.S and Israel
Already strained ties between the two Middle East powers, each demonstrating a different Western allegiances, have further deteriorated following Israel’s military ventures in Gaza. Therefore, the chances of restoring relations between these countries, who share deep-rooted issues seem illogical. Iran is not going to change when it comes to foreign and diplomatic policies, if anything, the incumbent administration will try to accelerate its war on Israel to accomplish Ebrahim Raisi’s unfulfilled objectives.
Iran has refused to have formal diplomatic relations with the United States and rejected recognizing the state of Israel for decades, and remains under the weight of severe U.S. and Western sanctions. Attempts to make progress in talks to revive the Iranian nuclear deal repeatedly failed over the course of Joe Biden presidency. Amid Israel’s war against Palestine’s militant group Hamas, Israel and Iran have traded drone and missile barrages, putting the region on edge and spiking fear of a wider war in Middle East.
President power in Iran are as critics articulate, limited. President is second-in-command within the Iranian state, but he doesn’t have the same sort of independence, and ability to maneuver as president in many Western democracies do. He serves as the behest of Iran’s Supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, in current circumstances. The president also doesn’t have independent foreign policymaking authority, so his death will really be more about finding his replacement to maintain cohesion with the system.
